Just in time for NRF 2026: Retail’s Big Show, Riskified has released new insights on a costly post-holiday headache for digital retailers: refund abuse. 

In addition to the season’s usual flood of gift returns and exchanges, January rings in a surge in refund claims that quietly erodes margins and strains customer service teams at the worst possible time.

Why refund abuse peaks after the holiday retail rush

Refund abuse most commonly appears as Item Not Received (INR) or Did Not Arrive (DNA) claims in which fraudsters exploit gaps between delivery data and merchant systems — especially during Q4, when high order volumes mask abusive activity.

Riskified’s analysis of major retailers reveals that orders placed during November and December drive 31% of all refund claims across the year, and more than 55% of January claims stem from pre-holiday purchases. For retailers already operating at full tilt, this influx can lead to rushed decisions, manual backlogs, and refunds approved by default.

The financial impact of ecommerce refund abuse

The report also shows the significant financial toll. Approximately 1–2% of total order value is refunded annually, and nearly a quarter of refunded dollars come from abusive claims. At scale, this translates into millions in losses per merchant and a multi-billion-dollar problem across the retail industry.

In fact, Riskifed research shows that fraudsters deliberately target this period knowing that overwhelmed teams are more likely to approve refunds to preserve service levels.

Read the report to protect peak-season profitability

A key takeaway from Riskified’s research is that refund abuse is both predictable and preventable. Leading retailers are shifting from static, one-size-fits-all policies to identity-based and automated approaches that protect margins without sacrificing CX.

To explore the analysis, including which orders and claims are most likely to be fraudulent and when, read the full report: Refunduary is here: How to prevent refund policy abuse, protect profitability, and optimize CX.

If you’re heading to the NRF show in New York, come by Booth 5374 to chat with our team about your Refunduary experiences and learn better strategies to prevent refund abuse, delight good customers, and combat all types of policy abuse.